El uniquindiano Julián Alejandro Olarte García, graduado del Programa de Licenciatura en Matemáticas y estudiante de la Maestría en Biomatemáticas, logró que su artículo científico en segunda lengua: “Modeling the dengue fever transmission in a periodic environment”, fuera aprobado para su publicación en el Volumen 55 No. 1 de 2021 (próximo a publicarse) de la Revista Colombiana de Matemáticas, indexada en Publindex. El producto de investigación forma parte del trabajo de grado que viene desarrollando el estudiante, bajo la dirección del PhD Anibal Muñoz Loaiza, docente-investigador y líder del Grupo de Modelación Matemática en Epidemiología (GMME).
Article abstract
A mathematical model for dengue fever transmission is analyzed, which incorporates relevant biological and ecological factors: vertical transmission and seasonality in the interaction between the vector (Aedes aegypti females) and the host (human). The existence and uniqueness of a positive disease-free periodic solution is proved; the global stability of the disease-free solution and the effect of periodic migrations of mosquitoes carrying the virus on the transmission of dengue are analyzed utilizing the mathematical definition of the Basic Reproductive Number in periodic environments; finally, it is numerically corroborated with the help of the Basic Reproductive Number that dengue cannot invade the disease-free state if it is less than one and can invade if it is greater than one, however, in both threshold conditions when vertical transmission occurs, the number of infected people and carrier vectors rises, representing a mechanism for the persistence of dengue cases in a community throughout a natural year.
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